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Model Better Predicts Lung Cancer Risk for African Americans

Sensitivity for lung cancer screening greater with PLCOm2012 model than USPSTF criteria

TUESDAY, Sept. 1, 2020 (HealthDay News) — The Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial Model 2012 (PLCOm2012) risk prediction model is more sensitive for identifying African American ever-smokers for lung cancer screening than the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) criteria, according to a study published online Aug. 18 in the Journal of Thoracic Oncology.

Mary M. Pasquinelli, D.N.P., from the University of Illinois at Chicago, and colleagues examined whether the PLCOm2012 risk prediction model more effectively selects African American ever-smokers for screening than USPSTF criteria.

The researchers found that the PLCOm2012 model increased sensitivity for the African American cohort compared to USPSTF criteria at lung cancer risk thresholds of 1.51, 1.70, and 2.00 percent per six years. At the 1.70 percent risk threshold, the PLCOm2012 model and USPSTF criteria identified 71.3 and 50.3 percent of African American cases, respectively. In White cases, there was no difference (66.0 and 62.4 percent, respectively). For African American ever-smokers who were positive by the PLCOm2012 model but not by USPSTF criteria, the criteria missed from the USPSTF were pack-years <30, quit time >15 years, and age <55 (67.7, 22.5, and 13 percent, respectively).

“The USPSTF criteria significantly under-selects African American compared to White ever-smokers,” the authors write. “Use of an accurate lung cancer risk prediction model which accounts for the independent elevated risk in African American individuals can help overcome this disparity in lung cancer screening.”

One author developed the PLCO lung cancer risk prediction models.

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